SSA 2023 featured a talk about ‘Rapid Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey-Syria Earthquake Doublet’, presented by Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Thomas Ulrich, Mathilde Marchandon, James Biemiller, and John Rekoske (LMU).
Also, Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer (ETH) presented the poster on ‘Sequence-specific Updating of European ETAS Model with Application to the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake Sequence’ at SSA 2023.
In a recent study by the DT-GEO project, researchers analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence following the 2023 M7.8 Türkiye-Syria earthquake. Leveraging a generic ETAS-based operational forecasting model for Europe, calibrated using the European Seismic Hazard Model data, the team focused on data between 1990 and 2015. This investigation aimed to evaluate how the model would have forecasted the temporal and spatial evolution of the earthquake sequence.
Surprisingly, the observed productivity of the sequence exceeded the generic model’s forecast, echoing findings from earlier studies on different sequences. To address this, the study advocates for sequence-specific updates to improve model-observation alignment.
The study introduces a novel strategy for visualizing aftershock forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting results. This approach aims to accurately describe productivity and spatial aftershock distribution while mitigating biases in temporal decay predictions. By maintaining fixed temporal kernel parameters and calibrating remaining variables using sequence-specific data, promising results were achieved, suggesting better forecasts than the baseline model.